The Center for Creative Community

PREPRARING FOR THE FUTURE

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PREPARING FOR THE FUTURE

Part II

Strategies for Prediction

General-Purpose Process for Futuring (with Example)

1. DETERMINE SCOPE (unit of study). Options include oneself or any other individual; a volunteer program; an entire organization or group; an association or coalition; a neighborhood, community, nation, world.

EXAMPLE: Our unit of study will be the "Phone Friend" program in which latchkey children, 8-12 years old, are matched with Senior Citizen volunteers, whom they are to call when they (the children) get home.

2. SELECT APPROPRIATE TIMEFRAME. We suggest between six months and three years in the future.

EXAMPLE: Two years from today, for our "phone Friend" program

3. CLEARLY DESCRIBE PRESENT SITUATION (All parties should be able to agree on this description)

EXAMPLE; The Phone Friend volunteer program is in very early stags. A one-half time volunteer coordinator has just been hired, and we have gathered information on several other similar programs elsewhere. A few Seniors have expressed general interest in being involved with the program and a few latchkey parents have been provisionally approached to see if they might be interested in having their child in such a program (results inconclusive on this).

4. IDENTIFY TWO TO FOUR MAIN OPPORTUNITIES THAT MIGHT BE CAPITALIZED ON WITHIN THE TIMEFRAME YOU HAVE CHOSEN.

EXAMPLE:

+ Appears to be a strong early interest in the program from several important sectors of the community, notably the media and the school system, but also city government and religious groups.

+ It looks like there are a large number of homebound Seniors not being tapped into by other programs, and these Seniors might be just right for the Phone Friend program.

5. IDENTIFY TWO TO FOUR MAIN THREATS OR CHALLENGES YOU EXPECT TO HAVE TO DEAL WITH WITHIN THE TIMEFRAME YOU HAVE CHOSEN

EXAMPLE:

(-) Parents might well be reluctant to permit their children to be in the program, via embarrassment about the situation, mistrust, etc.

(-) There is a general shortage of volunteers in our community.

(-) We want to limit the child-Senior relationship to phone contacts, preferably only those initiated by the child. We have real concern, however, that the relationship might prove difficult to limit/manage and instead grow to involve other potentially threatening aspects.

(-) There will be a serious general recessions, affection our community.

Notes on par. 4 and 5. Some factors might actually be both threats and opportunities, e.g. growth of the child-Senior relationship beyond program bounds might have beneficial effects, and strong media interest in the program might backfire later if the program runs into some problems. For now, though, the important thing is how you perceive the factor, mainly as threat or opportunity.

6. VISUALIZE THE IDEAL SITUATION at the end of the timeframe selected for your unit of study. It may help to build your practical paradise around the assumption that all your main opportunities have been capitalized on and all your threats nullified (pars 4 and 5 preceding). However, there may be other features of Utopia besides these. Note also: your ideal should include impressions, not just statistics, by any means. Finally, try to stick primarily with what has happened rather than how it happened (later).

EXAMPLE: The program has lots of kids registered, in good balance with the number of appropriate Seniors available to volunteer (about 75 matched). We have a full-time volunteer coordinator now, with part-time secretarial support. We’re getting very favorable publicity, particularly on our use of Homebound Seniors as volunteers. The school system has been extremely helpful in identifying latchkey children for us, and encouraging their parents to register them in the program, and parents show increasing confidence in referring their children. We can tell a number of positive stories about the program and don’t have to hide any bad ones. Especially nice has been some spin-offs in general awareness of the plight of latchkey children and their parents, leading to such things as advocacy for more day care and flexible hours for workings parent. … etc …

7. VISUALIZE THE DISASTER SCENARIO, the worst predictable way things might turn out by the end of the chosen timeframe. This is essentially the opposite of visualizing the ideal, e.g. here opportunities are not capitalized on and threats are realized, plus other horrors. Note: the worst possible situation is not necessarily the end of your program. It might instead be a somehow surviving program which should be put out of its misery, but none has the guts or ability to do so.  EXAMPLE: There have been several bad incidents. In one, a child’s parents persuaded a low-income Senior volunteer to lend them money and never returned it. In another, a Senior was guilty of a serious breach of confidentiality regarding her latchkey assigned child. This has led to very bad publicity in the media, which affects the host organization as well as the Phone Friend Program itself. Parents are reluctant to refer their kids (there are only 13 in the program), and we are also getting flack from people who have volunteered but have been waiting a long time for assignment. To top it all off, our community has been hard hit by a recession. With higher unemployment, more parents (not by choice) are home and there are fewer latchkey children. As the same time, funds of the program are scarce and a cut-off has been threatened. Etc…
8. CHOOSE ONE OR MORE OPPORTUNITIES AND/OR ONE OR MORE THREATS (Par 4,5) WHICH ARE:
   • most within your capability to do something about (doable)
   • and you can begin work on them immediately

   AND

9. LAY OUT AN ACTION PLAN TO DEAL WITH THESE FACTORS.
   Note: We’ll be less detailed with the example here, because we assume you know how to set up an action plan or can easily find out. We do suggest you not spread yourself too thin trying to deal with all the factors at once. Some factors, e.g. the recession, will be eliminated anyhow, because you can’t by yourself "cure" hem. Otherwise, managing (limiting) the child-Senior relationship might involve checking how other Phone Friend programs have handled the problem; intensive orientation of both volunteers, parents (and children); assigning some volunteers just to monitor relationships, etc. Finally, note how some opportunities (homebound senior volunteer potential) can "cancel out" some threats (shortage generally of volunteers).
   
   

Center for Creative Community
P. O. Box 2427
Santa Fe, New Mexico 87504

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Ivan Scheier
Stillpoint
607 Marr
Truth or Consequences, New Mexico, 87901
Tel (505) 894-1340
Email: ivan@zianet.com

For comments and editing suggestions please contact Mary Lou McNatt mlmcnatt@indra.com