The Center for Creative Community

BRACKETING

@ -- permission for use-with-acknowledgment .

For the use of participants at the 1992 VOLUNTAS Institute
The Center for Creative Community
Ivan Scheier

BRACKETING
(With Ideal and Disaster Scenarios)

The idea is to leap to the futures, then use this vision(s) as a guide in moving towards the best and avoiding the worst of what is oncoming. A group of stakeholders in your work/organization/mission visualizes THE IDEAL SCENARIO. (the inverse of Murphy's law; everything that can go right, does), and then THE DISASTER SCENARIO where everything that might go wrong, does (Murphy's law, proper). The first gives you something to STEER FOR while the second provides something to steer AWAY FROM. Futurists sometimes use a third scenario, the most likely future, but we'll omit that here.

In the IDEAL SCENARIO try to visualize the best of all possible worlds, for your work and hopes. The setting should be quiet, peaceful, unrushed. Try very hard not to worry HOW you got there or about DETAILS. Just let the dream come. Look for quality of things as well as quantity; include feelings as well as numbers. Be affirmative in every way. Instead of just criticizing the way things are now, project your positive vision of the wonderful way things COULD be. Feel free to express results in pictures or even music as well as words.

It probably helps to do THE DISASTER SCENARIO on an upset stomach. It certainly helps if you've painted the rosy ideal scene first. One pitfall here is the assumption that the worst case is utterly simple: our program/organization doesn't exist any more! Not necessarily so. The worst possible case could be a program that ought to be put out of its misery, but nobody has the guts to do so.

What can be done once you have the pull of your vision, to help it come true? There are three possibilities.

DO NOTHING. Incubate, Steep. Let your unconscious do the planning.

WALK BACKWARD. If I want this to happen in five years, I've got to start doing XYZ today, and _____ tomorrow, etc.

PLAY CATCHFIRE. Talk obsessively about your dream and see if/who it catches fire with, what they suggest and what they may be willing to do (See 'Rules for Dreamers')

 A. BEST-LEVERAGE RESPONSE: AN OUTLINE

Best-leverage response sees futuring as a challenge to select the most significant, relevant "future factors" coming in on you "from the outside" and then the most feasible, productive responses possible to these factors, in the future. The four main phases in the process are outlined below:

1) GET THE WIDEST POSSIBLE ARRAY OF POTENTIALLY RELEVANT AND IMPORTANT FACTORS IN YOUR FUTURE.

Draw from the suggestions made by consultants and trainers who travel and therefore have a good opportunity to pick up trends. One such list, prepared as a handout for workshops on futuring, is attached at the end of this section, (page 15) "Some" Major Trends Impacting Volunteerism Today (1993)". Another resource is Sue Vineyard's book: MEGATRENDS & VOLUNTEERISM (1993, Heritage Arts Publishing, 1807 Prairie Ave, Downers Grove, IL 60515)

Certainly, consider such lists suggested by outside experts. But don't stop there lest you miss some influences which are powerful locally, yet overlooked nationally (the "unique components" in futuring mentioned in the introduction). Convene a group of STAKEHOLDERS?? your program--volunteers, paid staff, consumers of service, board, community people, etc. Remember, futuring is the last thing you should do alone with yourself in the closet. You need all the perspectives you can get; all the alertness and experience to fill information gaps and catch errors one person alone can make. This local group brainstorms the widest possible range of potentially relevant factors. As usual in brainstorming, downplay the critical faculty and let the ideas flow....

2) SELECT FROM THE WIDE ARRAY OF POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT FUTURE FACTORS (step one), ONE OR A FEW "KEY FACTORS"

The stakeholders group is guided by the following criteria in selecting a few key factors from among the wide array of potentially significant ones produced in step one.

a) it is a good sign (but not an absolute clincher) if a factor suggested by national experts is also independently selected by the brainstorming local group of stakeholders.

b) as discussed also in Part 1, Introduction, the factor is of sharply focused importance for your unit of study (individual, program, organization, etc). Factors of general importance to society may be virtually irrelevant to your unit of study, and vice versa. A common trap is to assume that factors recognized as of powerful general import for society will of course, be decisive for your particular concern (unit of study). Take such factors and try to draw them in to your specific concern and see if they remain powerful--something like reeling in a fish, perhaps. Thus, good overall prospects for economic recovery mean little if prospects are poor for your program. Similarly, a decisive trend to shortage of traditional volunteers is not of importance to a volunteer program popular enough to escape that trend, (and which carefully plans to continue that popularity.)

1. The focused-factor of powerful import to you now, will continue to be powerful during the future timespan you have chosen. If you're planning to downsize in response to a recession, be sure you don't get "caught" by economic recovery. If as a young person futuring in career planning, you see a currently dramatic shortage of engineers, be sure your engineering degree some years hence doesn't equip you to drive a cab in Seattle.

The third futuring approach considered in Part 11 (section C) has many examples of all the ways presently powerful factors (that seem like they could go on forever), can surprise you in the future (decelerate, circle, reverse, etc.)--good background reading for your committee at this point.

d) we can do something about this factor, not necessarily to control it but at least to adapt. We can't stop the hurricane, for example, but at least there are things we can do to lessen its impact. Nor can we stop the graying of America, but we might have a wide range of responses possible to us, which capitalize on the opportunities it offers for our mission. In sum, at this point we select factors for which relevant responses are feasible.

The above four "steps" are only things to keep in mind in the factor selection process, as an aid to insight, intuition, and deep discussion. Please do not consider them in any sense a mechanical formula.

Presumably, the stakeholders committee is now at the point where -- one or a few key factors have been selected, as the most significant. Key factors often have interactions with one another and/or an emergent combined character which is not entirely predictable from either alone. Thus, your options in response to the key factor "Continuing importance of an academic degree" may be affected by

other key factors such as "likelihood of a serious recession in the next few years." For the sake of manageability, I nevertheless suggest you apply remaining steps 3 and 4 to one key factor at a time, and only after that, begin to gauge possible interactions.

3) IDENTIFY AS MANY POSSIBLY RELEVANT RESPONSES AS YOU CAN,, TO THE KEY FACTOR and

4) FROM AMONG THESE POSSIBLE RESPONSES, CHOOSE THE BEST-LEVERAGE RESPONSE(s). By "best leverage" is meant a tactic or strategy judged most likely to maximize positive impact on your future, via relatively minimum/feasible investment of time, effort, money or other resources. (Positive impact is maximized insofar as we capitalize on the opportunities inherent in the key factors while at the same time buffering ourselves against its potential threats. Virtually any future factor will have this potential for both good and evil.)

Here are two examples of steps 3 and 4, assuming in each case that steps I and 2 have identified them as key factors

Key Factor: SHORTAGE OF VOLUNTEERS. For at least the next three or four years, there will be a shortage of volunteers, especially "traditional" ones willing to work on a regular basis in an agency/organizational setting, under the supervision of paid staff.

Step 3--Brainstorm of Possible Responses

***Do nothing (always an option) and hope the problem somehow 'resolves itself'

***Delay decision. May actually amount to the same thing as doing nothing, but could also be a desire to gather more information

***Cut volunteer program or scale it back

***Try to get more out of fewer volunteers by analyzing what they do now and removing inessentials.

***Sharpen and intensify our marketing (of what we have now essentially). May include more use of mass media, speakers bureau, etc.

***Tap into previously unexplored (for us) sources of volunteers

***Re-identify ourselves not just as volunteer coordinators, but as leaders of a new helping team, including traditional volunteers, interns, mandated service workers, autonomous community groups, stipended workers, etc., e.g. everyone except regular paid staff who might help out program or organization.

***Carefully scrutinize our benefit package for volunteers and see, if we can come up with some significant new incentives.

***Re-design volunteer roles, conditions of work, etc. the better to accommodate changing life styles of potential volunteers.

Step 4: Choosing the Best-Leverage Factor(s)

Since, our volunteers heretofore came from a relatively few sources, looking, at new sources was chosen as the most attractive main response. Two other responses implied here were redesigning benefit package and roles for volunteers, for greater possible appeal to new sources as well as our present volunteers.

KEY FACTOR: SHORTAGE OF CONSULTING MARKETS. There is currently not enough paid work for most of the people who are, or who wish to be, consultants/trainers in volunteerism. This condition is likely to continue or even worsen over the next few years.

Step 3-. Possible Responses (as individual, now a consultant)

---Do nothing

---Lower standard of living; add more unpaid consultantships

---Quit and find another job

---continue as is, dipping more into available personal financial resources or accepting more financial help from a spouse/friend etc

--- support myself with another part-time job & continue consulting

---become a regularly-salaried "internal consultant "for a large agency, and continue occasional freelance consulting.

---try to get associated with a successful consultant or firm

---Expand my offerings so I can appeal to other existing markets besides volunteer programs, e.g. business, government.

--- develop new markets closely related to "organized volunteerism", for example, consultant to entirely volunteer groups, and service, career counselor (for people wishing to invest their lives full-time in service to others)

STEP 4: Choosing the Best-leverage Response(s)

In the short-term, seek more consistent income will either a part- time salaried job, or a full-time internal consultant job. During this grace period, continue some freelance consulting and try to develop new markets.

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Ivan Scheier
Stillpoint
607 Marr
Truth or Consequences, New Mexico, 87901
Tel (505) 894-1340
Email: ivan@zianet.com

For comments and editing suggestions please contact Mary Lou McNatt mlmcnatt@indra.com